The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export has already been explained in detail, but briefly…

The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse…
The X axis is the days loan origination. 
The curves stop when [...]

• Private Aviation Transportation Collectibles

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

Continue reading → Prosper 1 Month Late or Worse Curves

The methodolgy or the sql for obtaining the data these curves from the private data export has already been explained in detail, but briefly…

The Y axis is the percentage of all loans orginated of a given age that are currently 1 month late or worse…
The X axis is the days loan origination. 
The curves stop when [...]

• Private Aviation Transportation Collectibles

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

Continue reading → Prosper 1 Month Late or Worse Curves

I’ve been pretty harsh on Prosper’s Portfolio Plans (PP) since they were introduced in October 2007.

This last January I wrote, “While the introduction of Portfolio Plans was a great idea for the rookie lender, I just don’t think that they will perform as well as estimated.”

The good thing is that I was right. The bad thing is that I was, err… right. I must admit that I only looked at one PP

• Plans, Blueprints Guides Building Hardware Home Improvement

• Swamp Thing Superhero Modern Age 1980-Now Comics Collectibles

Continue reading → Portfolio Plans Growing Up

Prosper Borrowers are competing with each other for Lender’s hard earned money. Some stand out on their own because they have good credit and show up on saved searches or receive bids automatically from Portfolio Plans. However, those with less than stellar credit need a way to attract you to their listing and hopefully bid.

Some Borrowers use the title to get you to click on their listing.

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Investments Opportunities to Make Money

Continue reading → Pictures That Make You Wanna Bid

Another month another update…  The picture is rather muddled right now between the accrued interest showing up in my account balance even on loans that are technically “charged off”and lending club changing their algorithm… All I can do is continue to track and hope fore some clarity…  On a positive note I have had no [...]

• New Balance Womens Shoes

• July 4th Holiday, Seasonal Collectibles

Continue reading → Update of IRR/ROI Values July 2008

Brief Explanation: These curves show the entire set of prosper loan broken down by credit grade and lined up along the x axis on their origination date…  As a loan goes late (1 month or worse) it is counted (either by amount or by count) as late against the population… 
Recently a study from the University [...]

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Militaria Date Unknown Militaria Collectibles

Continue reading → Vintage Curve Update — 06/12/2008

Despite a record setting May 08, Prosper’s Conservative Portfolio Plan isn’t attracting much interest (pun).

It could be because the estimated return is only 5.10%.

There is a recent listing falling within the Conservative Plan. The interest rate offered on the listing is not high enough to attract PP bids from PP lenders that did not update their PP specifications and are still using the old

• A Simple Plan A Rock, Pop Music Memorabilia Entertainment Memorabilia

• VI Return of the Jedi Star Wars Science Fiction Collectibles

Continue reading → 5.10% Not Attractive to Prosper Lenders

My account update for the month shows some general improvement…
One thing to note is that with the loans in the debt sale not sold my IRR calculation is a little out of whack… Hopefully Prosper will create the loan status of “Charged Off” and remove those accounts from my balance which will [...]

• New Balance Womens Shoes

• Retail General Stores Businesses for Sale Opportunities

Continue reading → RateLadder IRR/ROI 6/08 Update — 0.57% to 16.64%

I have several bloggers ask for advice on their listings or potential listings…  One of them even joined my group and successfully received a $25K loan at an interest rate he was happy with…
As a blogger the reputation of your blog has meaning for you both in terms of your persona, but also in real [...]

• Heart Rate Monitors Monitors Pedometers Gym, Workout Yoga Exercise Fitness

• Real Estate Opportunities

Continue reading → 8 Listing Strategies to get Best Prosper Loan Rate

(part 18 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

If you have followed along to at least this point, then it should be obvious to you that you need to set your own bidding rates to accommodate the risk you’re taking on with each Prosper loan. duh! Don’t chase a rate down too far just because you were outbid and have to be on the loan. There is always a point to let a loan go free without your bid.

• Ball Point Pens Pens Writing Instruments Collectibles

• Cross Ball Point Pens Pens Writing Instruments Collectibles

Continue reading → Observations on Prosper Interest Rates

(part 17 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

As absolutely nifty as Prosper’s new Bidding Guidance and Portfolio Plans are, they just do not have the capability to capture the amount of detail that the manual bidder can.

Let’s consider the Borrower’s description. The way a borrower presents themselves can offer insight into their financial situation. A lot of borrowers these days include a

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

Continue reading → Beyond the Credit Grade

(part 16 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

Just because someone is an AA doesn’t mean they should get a 25k Prosper loan! Based on their income and DTI, they might only be considered an AA for a 1k loan.

Credit Grade is not the only thing the Prosper lender should be looking at. Actually, in my opinion, Credit Grade is quickly becoming a thing of the past.

When Prosper was first launched,

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Swamp Thing Superhero Modern Age 1980-Now Comics Collectibles

Continue reading → Assessing Borrower Risk

(part 15 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

One of the most important things one should consider when looking for listings on Prosper is to find borrowers that are requesting reasonable loan amounts within their capacity to pay you back.

Of course, the income claimed is self reported (although some are verified by Prosper), but that’s all we have, so we have to rely on it (with a healthy dose

• Back of Book Canada Stamps

• Back of Book United States Stamps

Continue reading → The Borrower’s Ability to Pay You Back

Any regular reader will know that last week I brought my first group listing to the marketplace. (As an aside, a group leader is no longer paid for successful listings and the haven’t been since September 13, 2007: Email To Group Leaders After Recent Changes. I think this was a good change and said [...]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Blogger Obtains Loan Using Social Capital”, url: “http://www.rateladder.com/2008/05/02/blogger-obtains-loan-using-social-capital/” });

• Lines, Leaders Tippets Fly Fishing Fishing

• Good Charlotte G Rock, Pop Music Memorabilia Entertainment Memorabilia

Continue reading → Blogger Obtains Loan Using Social Capital

Well another month down… Nothing major happened that would effect my IRR/ROI (like a debt sale.)  It was a fairly uneventful month for my Prosper p2p lending account, but it was a good month…  My ROI/IRR is higher on 4/5 of my tracking indices (it will be 5/6 when the statements are available and I [...]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “RateLadder IRR/ROI 5/08 Update — (1.35%) to 15.3%”, url: “http://www.rateladder.com/2008/05/01/rateladder-irrroi-508-update-135-to-153/” });

• SPF 25 and Higher Sunscreen Sun Care Skin Care Store

• 19.2 volt Higher Cordless Drills Power Tools Tools Home Improvement

Continue reading → RateLadder IRR/ROI 5/08 Update — (1.35%) to 15.3%

I’m watching you, Portfolio Plans.

After the latest revision, where the Conservative Portfolio Plan estimates a 5.10% return, I’m watching you.

Andrew was cool enough to post an update to the Prosper Official Blog Friday which outlines a new feature to Portfolio Plans (PP’s).

When an update is made to the Portfolio Plans, Prosper lenders using these Portfolio Plans are offered the

• Plans, Blueprints Guides Building Hardware Home Improvement

• A Simple Plan A Rock, Pop Music Memorabilia Entertainment Memorabilia

Continue reading → I’m watching you, Portfolio Plans.

Prosper’s Portfolio Plans changed dramatically last night.

I haven’t had the time to really get into these yet, but the minimum bid rates on some of these segments are ridiculously low.

Here is the Conservative Plan’s minimum bid rates: (criteria can be found on Prosper.com)

Slice 1:
Minimum bid rate: 5.90%
Estimated loss1: -0.22%
Adjustment2: 0.00%
Servicing fee: -1.00%
Estimated return3:

• Plans, Blueprints Guides Building Hardware Home Improvement

• Hair Loss Hair Care Store

Continue reading → Portfolio Plans Changed Dramatically

In my last post, I looked at the differences in loss figures shown in the Bidding Guidance and the Performance Page from which these figures are based on. (here) Andrew from Prosper dropped in to explain what might be happening.

“Andrew from Prosper here. What you’re seeing is expected – on some of the credit grade segments, we manually adjust the default rate up or down. We do this in one of

• Statues, Figures Christianity Religions, Spirituality Collectibles

• Bobblehead Figures Contemporary 1968-Now Disneyana Collectibles

Continue reading → Bidding Guidance Variation Explained?

I’ve been perusing through the recently updated Bidding Guidance from Prosper (BG dated 4/14/08), and something jumped out at me.

The loan size ranges for each credit segment are all a bit, um, wonky. Maybe I should be a little more specific. The upper limit of the loan size ranges are wonky.

For example, the lowest loan size range for each credit grade is “less than $5,000” (or $0 - $4,999) ;

• Range Hoods Ranges Cooking Appliances Major Appliances

• Large Size Notes Paper Money US Coins Paper Money

Continue reading → Could You Spare a Dollar?

On Monday there was another major update to Prosper’s Bidding Guidance (BG). The most significant change is that the BG went from 67 to 103 credit segments. Wow!

Credit grades were sliced even further than before based on loan request size. Here is a summary:

(the following are for credit grades AA-D, non-autofund listings only)

AA – From 4 to now 8 segments:

Loan size segments were:
$0 -

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Large Size Notes Paper Money US Coins Paper Money

Continue reading → Prosper Bidding Guidance Changes 4-14-08

With the lender statments taht were released this weekend it is possible to update my Quicken ROI…
Last month being a quiet “normal” month one would expect an increase in the quicken value…  My Quicken ROI increased from 8.11% to 8.99%.

SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Quicken ROI Update = 8.99%”, url: “http://www.rateladder.com/2008/04/14/quicken-roi-update-899/” });

Continue reading → Quicken ROI Update = 8.99%

Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender # 12
(part 14 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

Diving head first into Prosper Lending without doing your own due diligence is like cliff diving without checking out the water below first. Prosper is, after all, only two years old. The data is young. The data is thin.

Relying on a numbers only approach could be dangerous if you don’t know what you’re doing

• Diving Helmets Maritime Antiques

• Diving Other Sports Fan Apparel Souvenirs Sports Collectibles

Continue reading → Success is possible.

Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender # 11
(part 13 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

Instead of getting upset over late loans, the best thing you can do is analyze the late loan and learn how to avoid similar loans in the future.

Sure, you can always go to Eric’s cool website to look up late loans and learn from those, but when you’re on a loan that goes late and have real money at stake, the

• Real Estate Opportunities

• Swamp Thing Superhero Modern Age 1980-Now Comics Collectibles

Continue reading → Learn From Your Mistakes

Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender # 8
(part 10 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

So you’re relatively new to Prosper and have been happily bidding away. You’ve been careful about the loans you’ve selected, and you’re quietly cheering on each one of your borrowers; like that nice family with the cute baby, the pretty girl that is about to graduate from college, and that guy that wants to

• Family Guy Animation Characters Animation Art, Characters Collectibles

• Pretty as a Picture Enesco Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

Continue reading → Loans Really do go Late

Compared to last month with the initiation of the lawsuits…  This was a quiet month.  My worst number Model IRR degraded and my best number Default IRR improved.  I will update quicken as soon as the lender statement become available.

SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “RateLadder IRR/ROI Update April 2008 — (2.6%) to 14.37%”, url: “http://www.rateladder.com/2008/04/02/rateladder-irrroi-update-april-2008-26-to-1437/” });

• Plate Number Coils United States Stamps

• Model Ships Maritime Antiques

Continue reading → RateLadder IRR/ROI Update April 2008 — (2.6%) to 14.37%

(part 9 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#6 – Ask Questions…

Many times, there are some holes in the information we receive about a listing. Sometimes, what the borrower states in the Listing Description isn’t entirely clear and needs clarification. Also, while we’re given quite a bit of credit detail about the borrower, it’s still not a full blown credit report. Sometimes the numbers just

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Tee Times Green Fees Golf

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 6 & 7

(part 8 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#5 – Read Between the Lines

One of the most fascinating aspects of Prosper lending is the Listing Description. This is the chance for the borrower to explain why they need the loan. Often, borrowers use it to try to convince you that they’re not as bad of a risk as the credit details might suggest.

There are many similarities between Prosper Listing

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Lines, Leaders Tippets Fly Fishing Fishing

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 5

(part 7 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#4 – Consider Each Listing Carefully

The Prosper lender is given a good deal of credit information about each borrower. Often I catch myself only focusing on a few pieces of the data, overlooking the rest. It’s all important!

On top of the credit data, we are also provided (directly by the borrower) the listing description, pictures, question answers

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Serving Pieces Flatware Tableware Housewares Kitchenware Collectibles

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 4

(part 6 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#3 - Don’t Gamble with your Bids

Have you ever found yourself unsure about a listing but hopelessly drawn to that high and juicy interest rate? If you’re unsure about a borrowers ability to pay you back, chances are they probably can’t.

All it takes is one bad loan on a relatively small number of loans to really kill your ROI. J9359 recently had a

• Plate Number Coils United States Stamps

• Juicy Couture Women Discount Fragrances Store

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 3

(part 6 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#3 - Don’t Gamble with your Bids

Have you ever found yourself unsure about a listing but hopelessly drawn to that high and juicy interest rate? If you’re unsure about a borrowers ability to pay you back, chances are they probably can’t.

All it takes is one bad loan on a relatively small number of loans to really kill your ROI. J9359 recently had a

• Plate Number Coils United States Stamps

• Juicy Couture Women Discount Fragrances Store

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 3

(part 5 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#2 - Prosper Loans are not Handouts

As a Prosper lender, you’re going to read all kinds of sob stories and hard luck cases presented by potential borrowers. Some of the stories might be true, but there is also a high likelihood that most stories are highly embellished tales meant to tug at your heartstrings – and your cash.

Avoid sob stories and

• Cash Registers Banks, Registers Vending Collectibles

• Strange Tales Superhero Silver Age 1956-69 Comics Collectibles

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender - 2

(part 5 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#2 - Prosper Loans are not Handouts

As a Prosper lender, you’re going to read all kinds of sob stories and hard luck cases presented by potential borrowers. Some of the stories might be true, but there is also a high likelihood that most stories are highly embellished tales meant to tug at your heartstrings – and your cash.

Avoid sob stories and

• Cash Registers Banks, Registers Vending Collectibles

• Strange Tales Superhero Silver Age 1956-69 Comics Collectibles

Continue reading → Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender - 2

(part 3 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

Average Interest Rate: 12.3%
Average Risk: B grade

Average Loan Age: 388 days

9.7% ROI on Lendingstats
7.9% ROI on Eric’s CC
~ 7.5 % ROI using Excel XIRR

Briefly, here are more stats on my Prosper Lending Portfolio (again, these are more recent figures than what was shown at Prosper Days 08).

OK, so my ROI isn’t exactly “high”, but it’s not bad

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

• Heart Rate Monitors Monitors Pedometers Gym, Workout Yoga Exercise Fitness

Continue reading → Inside LC’s Prosper Portfolio

Prosper Lending review has an excellent new article. It combines 11 responses (including both Lending Club, Prosper, and yours truely) to a reader’s question.  It is well done on all front’s.  Here is the question asked:
Reader’s Question: I am in my mid-30’s. I am not rich, but I am pretty good at living within my [...]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Prosper Lending Review — 11 perspectives on p2p lending”, url: “http://www.rateladder.com/2008/03/18/prosper-lending-review-11-perspectives-on-p2p-lending/” });

• Richie Rich Cartoon Character Bronze Age 1970-79 Comics Collectibles

• Pretty as a Picture Enesco Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

Continue reading → Prosper Lending Review — 11 perspectives on p2p lending

Just the other day, I was scanning the most recent listings looking for the latest picture that Makes You Want to Bid (registration required). I stumbled on this interesting image, which naturally caught my eye (what says “bid on my listing” more than Zombies in Love?). Digging a little deeper, I realized that I was on this guy’s first loan - to print and distribute a

• Image By Publisher Modern Age 1980-Now Comics Collectibles

• Ads-Print Gas Oil Advertising Collectibles

Continue reading → Portfolio Plans get Comical

Vintage curves align loans at their originations date and then watch the late (30 days late or worse) percentage over time…
The lines are only as long as there are 250 loans in the bucket.  The Y axis is percentage of principal amount that is 30 days late or worse and the X axis is days [...]

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

• Vintage Handbags

Continue reading → Prosper Vintage Curve Update 3/1/2008

As I have talked about before Prosper is going to sue deadbeat borrowers and I have opted to join the suit as opposed to receiving an equivalent to the last junk debt sale buyout.  For me this meant giving up ~$30 to remain on the lawsuits of 6 of my delinquent borrowers.
This past weekend I received [...]

• Step Riser Sets Fitness Equipment Gym, Workout Yoga Exercise Fitness

Continue reading → Another Step in the Prosper Lawsuits Against Borrowers

With the release of the monthly statements I can update my Prosper Quicken ROI (Lending Club where is my statement?).
So first let me say that I was expecting to have to default over $300 in principal last month do to the New Agency Test to which I opted in.  Prosper has not yet marked those [...]

• Principal Secret Anti-Aging Products Skin Care Store

• Canadian Club Distillery Advertising Collectibles

Continue reading → Quicken ROI Update = 11.22%

Just the other day on his blog, Jeff at My Microfinance made an interesting comment regarding Prosper’s upcoming Prosper Days 08.

To give a little background, as I understand it, Jeff has been a member of Prosper for quite a long time and at one time had an active group. The removal of Group Leader compensation (and perhaps a few other things) pissed him off and he has since been a pretty harsh

• Halcyon Days Decorative Collectible Brands Decorative Collectibles Collectibles

• Beck, Jeff B Rock, Pop Music Memorabilia Entertainment Memorabilia

Continue reading → Why Bid Before Prosper Days 08?

With my recent loan on Prosper I tried to keep an eye out for interesting stories along the way.  In this case I found something I didn’t like as a lender…  Prosper explicitly told me not to put up a 25K listing. 
As a lender and data junkie I have known for some time that loans [...]

• Case Agriculture Advertising Collectibles

• Steering Wheels, Knobs Automobilia Transportation Collectibles

Continue reading → Prosper Steering Borrowers Away From 25K Loans

My Prosper Listing has 1 day left in the auction.  I reached 100% funding late afternoon last Wednesday.  Today is the final day to bid on my loan request.  Short of an Act of God this loan is as safe as they come.
My listing fell into the the conservative portfolio plan standing order #2 whose [...]

• A Simple Plan A Rock, Pop Music Memorabilia Entertainment Memorabilia

• Standing Liberty 1916-30 Quarters Coins US Coins Paper Money

Continue reading → RateLadder Loan And Portfolio Plan Power

I am continuing tracking all of my IRR and ROI calculations in one place.
My Prosper current account value is $11,765.47 across 196 active loans.
I am tracking annualized IRR for model, average and default (permanent tracking page), quicken ROI, Eric’s CC ROI, and Lending Stats ROI.
Each of these tools uses a different calculation and therefore each [...]

• Model Ships Maritime Antiques

• Model Horses Horse Animals Collectibles

Continue reading → RateLadder IRR/ROI Update Feb 1 2008 — (1.27%) to 15.52%

At the moment, there is no way for a Prosper lender to track the performance of the Portfolio Plans (PP) unless the lender is actually using them. One could use the performance page with criteria from the PP credit segments, but there is no way to filter out by interest rate - the results would include loans where the PP’s were bid off.

Fortunately for us, a relatively new lender stated on the

• Credit, Charge Cards Trading Cards Collectibles

• Track Field Other Sports Fan Apparel Souvenirs Sports Collectibles

Continue reading → Tracking Prosper’s Portfolio Plan Performance

I spent some time the other day evaluating my Prosper portfolio. Part of the reason for doing this was to see where I’ve been and to help determine where I’ll go in the marketplace.

I took a different approach this time, and looked at originations by month:

I also broke the months into quarters and added a dollar amount column:

Observation 1: Only a few bad decisions will hurt a lot.

• Sand Dollar Shells Rocks, Fossils, Minerals Collectibles

• State Quarters 1999-Now Quarters Coins US Coins Paper Money

Continue reading → Month by Month Evaluation

Sometime late afternoon on Wednesday (1/30/08) my loan reached 100% funding.  This is a critical first step in getting a Prosper loan. Without reaching 100% funded you cannot get a Prosper loan.  Reaching 100% funded should be the 1st goal of an Prosper borrower and the tools for reaching 100% should be employed to their fullest.

Choose [...]

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• Cut-Off Tools Air Tools Tools Home Improvement

Continue reading → Update: RateLadder Prosper Listing Request Reaches 100% Funded