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Sept. Performance Update – LC’s Prosper ROI

It’s been a while since I went through the trouble to see how my Prosper portfolio is doing, so here it is.

I use Excel’s XIRR function and count all loans 1 month late or more as having $0 loan value, 17 loans.

XIRR (ROI) = 8.06%

Average Loan Age = 511 days

I was a little surprised that the ROI went up since the last time I calculated it. I’ve had a bunch of loans slip into the death zone

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Portfolio Plans Growing Up

I’ve been pretty harsh on Prosper’s Portfolio Plans (PP) since they were introduced in October 2007.

This last January I wrote, “While the introduction of Portfolio Plans was a great idea for the rookie lender, I just don’t think that they will perform as well as estimated.”

The good thing is that I was right. The bad thing is that I was, err… right. I must admit that I only looked at one PP

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June 2008 - LC’s Lending Performance

I just went through my account details, and using Excel’s xirr function determined that my Prosper Lending ROI stands at 7.88% at the moment.

I was a little surprised at the result, considering I’ve picked up more late borrowers since I last reported. Fortunately the ROI still manages to hover between 7.5% - 8.0%. It is also hovering between the two ROI estimates given by Eric and Lendingstats.

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Prosper Set Some Records in May 08

If you follow Prosper stuff, you should have already heard by now that May 08 became Prosper’s largest month for loan originations. Over $9.5 million in loans originated last month, besting April 07, which was the previous high.

It took Prosper over a year to set a new originations record. Not exactly stellar (nor consistent) growth, but there’s more going on in the background. Let’s take a look

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Another Prosper Loan Bankruptcy

*sigh*

Another loan tagged with a bankruptcy in my Prosper loan portfolio.

Just turned less than 15 days late too. 18 on-time payments.

What is it with some folks? Oh, right. Nevermind…

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Prosper Collection Agency Amsher Workin’ It

To my surprise I noticed a second small collections payment from a 3 month late borrower within the month. This loan is two years old.

It looks like Prosper’s Collection Agency Amsher may have worked out some sort of payment plan with the borrower, about 1/4 of the monthly payment amount every two weeks. It won’t bring the loan current, but it will keep putting my money back in my pocket.

I

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Hopes Crushed on 6 Month Late Loan

I had my fingers crossed. I saw a dagger on a 6 month late Prosper.com loan, meaning a payment (a rather large one) was attempted. It had a regular payment number (did not start with “OP”), so I could only assume this payment was initiated by the borrower.

This borrower has had an interesting history. First becoming 3 months late, and then catching up late last summer. Then only to go late again

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One of Your Loans Defaulted Due to Bankruptcy

The automated Prosper message title said it all: “One of your loans defaulted due to bankruptcy”. Ugg.

I received two of these messages just recently. It’s not a surprise, since I’ve known that both of these borrowers had filed for bankruptcy. But defaults still suck.

Here’s a little about each of these:

Loan: Consolidation Loan (Listing 30873)
Borrower: SDL
Default date: Apr-30-2008

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Latest ROI Results

To my utmost surprise, my only “Late” loan made a payment (wahoo!), so at the moment I have no “Lates”. Of course there are plenty of loans one month late or worse, but without any “Late” loan statuses, I know that at least for 15 or so days there won’t be any more loans falling off the cliff into Collection Agency territory.

I went through and recalculated my Prosper ROI using Excel’s XIRR

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Don’t get Mad

Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender # 9
(part 11 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

When your loans start going late, don’t get mad. There’s really not much you can do about it anyway.

You could yell and scream like the loan chimp you are, but that doesn’t result in anything but a broken monitor and high blood pressure…

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Loans Really do go Late

Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender # 8
(part 10 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

So you’re relatively new to Prosper and have been happily bidding away. You’ve been careful about the loans you’ve selected, and you’re quietly cheering on each one of your borrowers; like that nice family with the cute baby, the pretty girl that is about to graduate from college, and that guy that wants to

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Quick Chimp Tip for the New Lender – 1

(part 4 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

#1 – Admit You’re a Noob

If you’re new to lending on Prosper, and you have no experience lending money to strangers over the internet, then your first order of business is to admit and embrace the fact that you have no idea what you’re doing and have a lot to learn.

If you’re new to lending on Prosper but haven’t done your homework first – buckle

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Inside LC’s Prosper Portfolio

(part 2 of my Prosper Lending Presentation)

Joined February 2006$27k Invested373 Total Loans
95 Paid Loans250 Current Loans
6 less than one month late22 one month late or worse

Here is a brief snapshot of my Prosper lending portfolio (these are the most recent figures).
When I first put this together, the item that stood out the most to me was the number of Paid loans in my portfolio. At the

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Prosper Days 2008 Recap - Part 8

Collections

I know it’s getting well past Prosper Days 2008, so I should really finish this up. One of the last topics I wanted to at least touch on briefly was the collections arena, one which we’ve already heard quite a good deal about already.

Doug Fuller (DoFu) appears to be committed to collecting on late debt however possible - taking in any form of payment, changing the dates of late

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Prosper Days 2008 Recap - Part 7

On Viability

Another thing that came out at Prosper Days 2008 was some more insight on the pace of growth on Prosper and the burn rate of it’s Venture Capital.

The viability of Prosper should be a huge concern for Prosper lenders. If Prosper goes out of business one day, someone needs to service our loans – that is, receive payments, distribute them to the multiple lenders on each loan, collect

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Month by Month Evaluation

I spent some time the other day evaluating my Prosper portfolio. Part of the reason for doing this was to see where I’ve been and to help determine where I’ll go in the marketplace.

I took a different approach this time, and looked at originations by month:

I also broke the months into quarters and added a dollar amount column:

Observation 1: Only a few bad decisions will hurt a lot.

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16 Payments - Then Bankruptcy

Last week* I had a loan hit “late < 15 days” status on the day it was due, meaning no payment was attempted. It also had a “bankruptcy” tag on it, which of course is always bad news.

The bummer of it all is that this borrower has successfully made 16 payments. Yeah, 2 payments were made at the 15 day late mark, but they were still made. 16 freakin’ payments!

Almost halfway into the life of

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Things Fall Apart

Thanks to mike at ProsperousLand for pointing out that Prosper.com ‘s bidding guidance was recently updated. Unfortunately, Prosper does not display any archive of old bidding guidance segments or Portfolio Plan criteria. Fortunately for me, I’ve been keeping copies… :)
I won’t go into every detail that was changed, but curiosity got the best of me and I just wanted to know,

Why did the credit

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My Second Christmas Gift on Prosper.com - DEFAULTS

4 of my 9 Prosper.com loans over 4 months late finally defaulted over the Christmas holiday week.

What a gift. It wasn’t unexpected because these loans have been sitting in the 4+ month late status for quite some time (virtually uncollectible), but it still feels like a kick in the pants.

D non-Homeowner
Principal balance before sale: $48.09
Proceeds from sale and forfeited group rewards: $1.72

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